000 AXNT20 KNHC 201716 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 8N-9N. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION DEPICTS A MOISTURE SURGE BETWEEN 21W-26W. LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AS WELL AS ASCAT DATA SUPPORT THE AXIS POSITION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 25W-27W AND FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 23W-27W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SFC PRESSURES IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE BEGINNING TO RISE BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-18N W OF 59W. GUADALOUPE ISLAND REPORTED A 24 HR PRECIP TOTAL OF 1.65 INCHES. MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION INDICATES A MOISTURE BULGE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY SATURDAY. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 8N23W 5N30W 3N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE TODAY. IN ADDITION TO ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 28W ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 28W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE AXIS IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN GULF. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF S OF 26N E OF 92W. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COASTLINE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR HONDURAS. UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC IS BEING FUNNELED ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH IS KEEPING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W. AT THE SFC...A STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT JUST CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N70W...EXTENDING SW TO 30N75W THEN TURNING WNW TO A LOW ON THE GEORGIA COAST. A BAND OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-71W. THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N46W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MON PRODUCING A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FLOW ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE RIDGE. AN E-W UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ WADDINGTON