000 AXNT20 KNHC 191746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP AND IS ALONG 20W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. RECENT HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATES WAVE HAS MOVED OFF OF W AFRICA SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND ANY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT SHOWS THE WAVE VERY WELL WHERE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THU INTO FRI...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATE FRI. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N19W 6N23W INTO NRN BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 18W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 49W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER NRN MEXICO COVERING THE FAR NW GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT DOMINATES THE ERN U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH NRN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS AND N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS AIDING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SRN FLORIDA EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WRN CUBA TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK RIDGING PROVIDING THE AREA WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RIDGE COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS ITS BASE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXTEND FROM WRN CUBA TO ALONG THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE COASTLINE. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-83W. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SW OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MON PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ALSO MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W/55W IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THU. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US AND W ATLC WITH A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N72W WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC TO N FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N54W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE BASE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W. $$ HUFFMAN