000 AXNT20 KNHC 190547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 48W-52W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THU...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON FRI. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 20 MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND OVER MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE AXIS IS EVEN HARDER TO FIND. THE WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N25W 6N40W INTO NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND IT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE EXACT POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BASED ON CURRENT DATA. WILL WAIT FOR VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR MORE EVIDENCE. IN ADDITION...THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM IS SHOWING THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SINCE TWO DAYS AGO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 26W-32W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N WEST OF 45W TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER N MEXICO COVERING THE FAR NW GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A BROADER UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS OF 03Z...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO 27N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE OVER FLORIDA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SFC RIDGE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY GIVING THE AREA A RAINY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED...WITH PROBABLY ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. CARIBBEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA EXTENDS A RIDGE NE THROUGH HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLC BEYOND 32N60W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ATLC COAST OF COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SW OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MON PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW ATLC WITH A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 32N76W TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N60W. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE BASE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N28W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N38W AS WELL AS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THIS LEAVES THE ATLC E OF 60W ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. $$ GR/CW