000 AXNT20 KNHC 162346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 7N. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN THAT WAS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LESS DEFINED THIS EVENING AND THERE IS STILL NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AFRICAN DUST THAT CONTINUES TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WAVE IS AGAIN ILL-DEFINED THIS EVENING WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 10N24W 6N33W 7N49W 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO COVERING THE GULF N OF 21N W OF 94W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SAME AREA LIMITING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N95W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM W CUBA COVERING THE SE GULF. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA AND OVER W CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 84W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W ANCHORED N OF PANAMA NEAR 12N78W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE ACTIVITY E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE N OF 16N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC... SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA OVER THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30N75W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA W OF 75W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WEAK CUT OFF UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N70W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 53W-65W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE REGION EXTENDING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N42W TO 25N52W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N FROM 20W-35W WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 20N FROM AFRICA TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N34W. DRY STABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. $$ WALLACE