000 AXNT20 KNHC 161755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH A DISTINCT LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N30W...BUT IT APPEARS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IN THE TROPICAL E ATLC IS TRAILING THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SWD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE SATELLITE DERIVED TPW SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BUT IT IS BECOMING MORE ILL-DEFINED AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N25W 9N30W 2N40W 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE ERN US SEABOARD TO THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NRN MEXICO COVERING THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF REGION FROM 26N-30N E OF 85W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE...WITH A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 26N90W IS CONTROLLING THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF W OF 85W GIVING THE AREA MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. CARIBBEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W DOMINATES THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TANDEM WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W INCLUDING JAMAICA. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ENVELOPS THE E CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE ERN US SEABOARD AND ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 66W-72W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N70W TO NEAR 20N74W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N44W 26N51W TO 25N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND N OF 22N. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 22N FROM AFRICA TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N34W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS MAINLY N OF 18N AND E OF 25W. $$ HUFFMAN