000 AXNT20 KNHC 160555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 26W/27W ON THE 00Z MAP IS PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ALONG 22W/23W. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N...BUT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND CONTINUES TO OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO PANAMA MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...TPW...SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO OVER HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 72W-80W INCLUDING JAMAICA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N25W 5N34W 6N43W 4N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80-100 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 27W-35W...AND WITHIN 80 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 30W-35W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA AFFECTING SENEGAL AND GUINEA BISSAU. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS AFFECTING THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS HAS WEAKENING. INSTEAD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDED FROM OVER THE SE CONUS TO THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO COVERING THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N89W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF WHERE SE TO S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BLOWING. THIS WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO AT LEAST MIDWEEK. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND RUNS FROM 28N84W TO 25N85W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ISLAND OF SAN ANDRES DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLC ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH HISPANIOLA WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ENVELOPS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATER. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ATLANTIC... THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS ALSO WEAKENING. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NEAR 28N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SAME LOW ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N TO OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-76W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING 27N. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AND NOW A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N44W TO 25N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 22N FROM AFRICA TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED 30N30W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS MAINLY N OF 18N AND E OF 25W. $$ GR