000 AXNT20 KNHC 160004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 6N. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY THE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 21W-25W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND CONTINUES TO OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W FROM CUBA TO COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 16N TO OVER HAITI AND CUBA BETWEEN 73W-79W INCLUDING JAMAICA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N23W 5N37W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 15W-20W AND FROM 27W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO COVERING THE GULF N OF 21N W OF 92W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SAME AREA LIMITING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS OF LOUISIANA AND ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SE US TO THE COAST OF THE NE GULF WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N82W ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US. THIS IS ENHANCING AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF 90W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. CARIBBEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OF TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA MOVING N TO ALONG THE N COAST W OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. ATLANTIC... A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N78W. A CUT OFF UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS FROM 29N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-72W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM 50W-65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION 32N44W SW TO 26N54W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E AND S OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 22N FROM AFRICA TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER FEATURES AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N27W SW ALONG 24N43W S OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT/TROUGH THEN NW TO A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 31N69W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE E ATLC...THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. $$ WALLACE