000 AXNT20 KNHC 150559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 30W FROM 07N TO 19N AND MOVING W AT 20 KT WITH THE WAVE AXIS DEPICTED ON ANIMATED SSMI-DERIVED TPW. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE S OF 13N BUT SEEM TO BE DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W-72W FROM 08N TO 19N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING CONTINUES ALONG THE WAVE NEAR THE BORDER OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND A LARGE ARE OF SCATTERED TSTMS WERE ENHANCED OVER NW COLOMBIA AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS NOTED OVER HAITI. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W TO 08N30W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W AND 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W AND 25W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING INDICATED AT 07N17W WITH MAY TURN OUT TO THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N34W TO 04N48W...AND ELSEWHERE S OF THE ITCZ TO 02S BETWEEN 33W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF CYCLONE IS 21N95W AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT WSW WITH TIME. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CRESTING AT 24N97W. AN OTHER UPPER RIDGE NOW EXTENDS E OFF THE TEXAS COAST 28N96W TO 28N90W. AN UPPER CYCLONE E OF THE AREA NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS HAS ITS ENVELOPE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 30N85W TO 22N90W. DRY UPPER AIR IS OBSERVED W OF LINE FROM 29N93W TO 21N96W AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 23N AND 27N. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST WITH DENSE MOISTURE SPREADING S OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N E OF 90W. ANOTHER MOISTURE SOURCE WAS CONVECTION ENHANCED LATE SAT OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THE LOW LEVELS A HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N90W. SCATTERED LOW AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE NE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS HAS A STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A BASE NEAR 18N75W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO FLARE ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...ROUGHLY IN THE AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 63W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW ADVECTED NE OF THE CARIBBEAN. TO THE S OF THIS UPPER TROUGH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED OVER THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 70W. DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS STREAMING E ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA W OF 80W. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 26N76W BUT CONTINUES TO TRAIL AN QUASI STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. INTENSE CONVECTION FLARED OVER THE LARGER N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE SAT. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE HAS CONCENTRATED IN A MOISTURE PLUME NOW DISSECTING THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 19N68W TO 23N50W THEN NARROWS TO WELL BEYOND 32N40W. THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH LYING ROUGHLY N OF POINTS 31N72W 26N55W 31N38W...WITH DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED WITHIN THIS TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 31N46W TO 26N60W TO 28N72W. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS NOW DOMINATED A BROAD E TO W RIDGE. UPPER DRY AIR IS INDICATED FROM 09N TO 23N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W...AND IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS FOUND WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 31N15W TO 22N30W BECOMING LOCALLY BROKEN OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. $$ NELSON