000 AXNT20 KNHC 142348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W FROM 7N TO 18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND ONLY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. POSITION IS CONFIRMED WITH LATEST ANIMATION OF THE SSMI-DERIVED TPW FROM CIMSS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NW VENEZUELA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCTS AND IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 64W-73W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 7N26W 7N31W 2N50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N13W ACROSS INTERIOR W AFRICA TO NEAR 4N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER SRN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 23N95W TO 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS REMAIN INLAND ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE W ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT TROUGHING FROM THIS LOW AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE FAR ERN GULF PROVIDING NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE N GULF COAST AS THIS AREA REMAINS UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE FROM N FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GIVING THE AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL SETTLE S-SW TO THE NW GULF WATERS ON SUN. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE W ATLC AND AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 70W ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ERN COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W AND N CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SE CARIBBEAN. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTS...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING STRONG TO FRESH TRADES MON THROUGH WED OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN REGION. ATLANTIC... A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC AS SEVERAL BANDS OF CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WITHIN 200 NM E-SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE BASE REACHING 26N. THE ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N47W 28N57W TO 28N70W. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ERN ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A DECAYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 15N39W WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE WEST AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE EAST. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN