000 AXNT20 KNHC 140554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 25W FROM 07N TO 18N AND MOVING W AT 15-20 KT WITH THE GENERAL POSITION SUGGESTED IN LATEST ANIMATION OF SSMI-DERIVED TPW. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND 360 NM E OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W-66W FROM 08N TO 19N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCTS AND CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...MOST PRONOUNCED OVER VENEZUELA WHERE SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM 12N TO 19N WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED OVER INTERIOR HISPANIOLA AT THE MOMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WAVE WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS LATER TODAY AFTER A FEW HOURS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CAN BE ANALYZED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W TO 06N35W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N27W TO 04N47W...AND ELSEWHERE S OF THE ITCZ TO 02S BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 31N85W 24N92W INTO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N94W. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DRIFT W WITH TIME AND IS CUTTING OFF FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH TO THE N. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NICARAGUA AT 13N87W HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST ALONG POINTS 22N92W 26N88W 23N82W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS E OF THE AREA OVER THE NW BAHAMAS...BUT ITS ENVELOPE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS EXPANDED W ACROSS FLORIDA WITH NW WINDS ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE E OF A LINE FROM 29N84W TO 23N80W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED W OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE E TEXAS COAST...ROUGHLY W OF LINE 29N93W TO 23N98W. DRY UPPER AIR IS ALSO SHIFTING W ACROSS FLORIDA N OF 26.5N...AND MAY MOVE W OVER THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE EXTREME E GULF LATER TODAY AND EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS COASTAL CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST WITH DENSE MOISTURE SPREADING S BETWEEN 83W AND 90W OVER THE AREA N OF 26N. ANOTHER MOISTURE SOURCE IS DECAYING CONVECTION ENHANCED LATE FRI OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER THE SW QUADRANT OF THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 20N96W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA SW THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A BASE NEAR 17N73W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N76W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL PART. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N70W TO 19N80W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST SUPPLIED FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER VENEZUELA IS ADVECTED N ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 69W. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 28N76W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES IS STREAMING SE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THEN TURNING E ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO AN AREA WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 18N66W TO 29N77W. THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH LYING ROUGHLY N OF POINTS 31N67W 24N56W 31N33W WITH DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED WITHIN THIS TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG 31N31W 27N40W 28N48W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N52W TO 31N66W. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A DECAYING TROUGH ALONG 32N06W TO 24N14W TO 26N22W WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE FORMING NEAR 30N22W WIT A RIDGE SW TO 24N34W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE AFRICAN COAST SW OF THIS SAME TROUGH ALONG 18N15W TO A SHARP CREST AT 24N28W. LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS FOUND WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 31N19W TO 11N51W. $$ NELSON