000 AXNT20 KNHC 111048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. AT THE CURRENT SPEED THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES WED EVENING. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 50W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 88W/89W S OF 25N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 6N40W 11N57W 10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 16W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 36W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N71W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N89W...AND OVER NE FLORIDA AT 30N80W. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 28N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING THE MAJORITY OF LOW CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION W OF 83W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 30N BETWEEN 33W-41W DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER WITH AXIS FROM 32N23W TO 26N30W 21N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA IS PRODUCING SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N38W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 45W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE S OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA