000 AXNT20 KNHC 110006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. AT THE CURRENT SPEED THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES WED EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 50W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE MOST CONCENTRATED MOISTURE SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N79W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N24W 6N41W 4N52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 14W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 35W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 14W-35W AND 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COMPLEX UPPER LEVELS COVER THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER SW MEXICO INTO THE W GULF S OF 27N W OF 93W...AND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NE TEXAS COAST...AN UPPER LOW OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W...AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE SE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE CENTRAL GULL. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE UPPER FEATURES HAVE AGAIN FLARED UP INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE SE US INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF E MEXICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER CLEAR THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN... WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 75W AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND W CUBA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE UPPER FEATURES HAVE AGAIN FLARED UP OVER HISPANIOLA BUT REMAIN INLAND. THE E CARIBBEAN IS SHOWER FREE THIS EVENING BUT IS UNDER DENSE HIGH CLOUDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE WED/EARLY THU. ATLANTIC... THE UPPER LOW OVER NE FLORIDA COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FLORIDA E COAST S OF 27N AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA COAST AND ALL OF THE GEORGIA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N73W. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 30W-45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N31W SW TO 27N39W THEN CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 30W-40W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W S OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH AND AS FAR N AS THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 9W/10W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AND NOW EXTENDS THROUGH 32N24W TO 23N32W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A THIN LAYER OF DUST MOVING OFF W AFRICA TO NEAR 35W. $$ WALLACE