000 AXNT20 KNHC 101042 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 46W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE . MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 78W-86W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 71W-79W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 7N50W 5N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 33W-42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 37W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 28N. 10-15 KT S WINDS DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 21N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N88W...AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N83W. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE YUCATAN TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TO NE FLORIDA INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W. FURTHER E THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS FROM 32N34W TO 30N36W 27N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA IS PRODUCING SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N32W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 45W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. $$ FORMOSA