000
AXNT20 KNHC 100601
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. 
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 78W S OF 19N MOVING W 
NEAR 15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE . 
MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 78W-85W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER N COLOMBIA 
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 72W-78W.   

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W 3N40W 7N48W 5N57W. 
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE 
SECTION...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 10W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 31W-43W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N72W. A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS 
DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE OVERCAST 
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 21N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N88W...AND OVER CENTRAL 
FLORIDA AT 28N83W. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF 
MEXICO S OF 26N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW N OF THE YUCATAN TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE OTHER UPPER 
LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TO NE FLORIDA INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.    
 
CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING THE MAJORITY 
OF THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE 
NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND 
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION W OF 80W 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N72W. 
FURTHER E THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS FROM 32N35W TO 29N37W 
26N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N27W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA IS PRODUCING SLY 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS N OF 
20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 8N32W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 45W.  
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 

$$
FORMOSA