000
AXNT20 KNHC 091726
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 13W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. WEAK 
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS AS THE LEADING 
EDGE OF A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W. CONVECTION S OF 4N IS EMBEDDED IN 
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W S OF 19N MOVING W 
10-15 KT. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUOY INDICATES A WIND SHIFT FROM 
DUE EAST TO SE FOLLOWING THE WAVE PASSAGE. THE UPPER AIR TIME 
SECTION ANALYSIS AT CURACAO INDICATES THE WAVE PASSED THE 
STATION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 94W S OF 21N 
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF 
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 
THE PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE S OF 20N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W AND INTO NE 
BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE AXIS AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL W OF 
32W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A SFC HIGH IN THE W ATLC REMAINS IN PLACE 
OVER THE GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. E 
TO SE 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA...WITH STRONGER 
WINDS IN THE SW GULF. INSTABILITY AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER 
S FLORIDA IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER 
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 
22N DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. ELSEWHERE IN THE 
GULF...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
ALOFT.
    
CARIBBEAN...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE 
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL 
WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS 
GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE VISIBLE ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALOFT...A WEAK RIDGE 
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER 
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W TO MOVE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TOMORROW...ENHANCING CONVECTION IN 
THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER AROUND A 1019 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 
30N74W CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE W ATLC...EXCEPT ALONG THE S 
FLORIDA COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 
CUBA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA W OF 77W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER 
S FLORIDA. FURTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW N OF 
THE AREA ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N37W AND CONTINUES WSW TO 
26N48W. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EAST 
ATLANTIC. ALOFT...DIVERGENCE AROUND AN E/W ELONGATED RIDGE OVER 
THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. NEAR 
ZONAL FLOW S OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS 
IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC S OF 22N.

$$
WADDINGTON