000 AXNT20 KNHC 090612 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 13W MOVING W 10-15 KT. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE REMAINS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEALS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED AND REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 42W-48W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THU. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 73W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL PORTRAYS AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE HOWEVER ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 92W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...AND IS HELPING TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE S PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N30W 8N42W 4N50W ENTERING FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 24W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 25W-35W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N69W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W PRODUCING NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BIMINI NEAR 26N79W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA E OF 95W. EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 24N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N69W . FURTHER E THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS FROM 32N41W TO 27N50W DISSIPATING TO 27N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF THE FRONT N OF 26N BETWEEN 36W-45W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N25W 19N48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL A WELL DEFINED LOW IS CENTERED OVER BIMINI NEAR 26N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 74W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-74W. A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N25W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 40W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. $$ FORMOSA