000 AXNT20 KNHC 090002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 13W MOVING W 10-15 KT. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE REMAINS OBSERVED IN SAT IMAGERY WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEALS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED AND REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE SURGE. SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS ON THE INCREASE MAINLY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 40W-43W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THU. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 70W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE CROSSING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AFFECTING JAMAICA TOMORROW. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA AND WESTERN YUCATAN WITH AXIS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 7N38W 6N44W ENTERING FRESH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150-180 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SFC TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST AND EXTENDS FROM 24N98W TO NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND CIUDAD VICTORIA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO TO THE BIG BEND AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH AND THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 1550 UTC SHOWED WINDS OF 15 KT OVER THE GULF W OF 93W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW PORTION WHERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND. CARIBBEAN... WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COVERS THE BASIN WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE REGION. ONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE SECOND ONE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. A SFC TROUGH...PROBABLY REFLECTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND EXTREME E CUBA MAINTAINING THE AREA OF STRONG TSTMS OVER E CUBA. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHERE NWLY WINDS ARE SWEEPING IN A DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE GULF. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LIKELY DUE TO THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS SHOWED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH E TRADE WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ATLANTIC... THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31N69W. A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N44W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WWD THROUGH 29N50W TO 30N57W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 38W-42W. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A 1030 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED N OF THE AZORES. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING WWD TO ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 10N41W. THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W. $$ COBB