000 AXNT20 KNHC 081757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 13W MOVING W 10-15 KT. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN SAT IMAGERY... WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEALS THE WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE SURGE. VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST SIDE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 38W-41W. SCATTRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 43W-46W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THU. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER... THE WAVE STILL SHOWS UP IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N66W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE CROSSING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... AND AFFECTING JAMAICA TOMORROW. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS. IT AXIS IS ALONG 88W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 7N38W 6N44W ENTERING FRESH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150-180 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SFC TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST AND RUNS FROM 23N97W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SE MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND BETWEEN TAMPICO AND CIUDAD VICTORIA. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS SCATTERED TSTMS IN THIS AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1021 HIGH LOCATED OVER THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH AND THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1300 UTC SHOWED WIND BARS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SAME AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW PORTION WHERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND. CARIBBEAN... WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COVERS ALMOST THE ENTIRE BASIN. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST SOUTH OF CUBA. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE REGION. ONE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SECOND ONE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. A SFC TROUGH...PROBABLY REFLECTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ASSISTING IN THE FORMATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE NWLY WINDS ARE BRING A DRIER AIRMASS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LIKELY DUE TO THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH E TRADE WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ATLANTIC... THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THOSE ISLANDS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS AND EVENTUALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N46W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WWD TO 27N57W. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 38W-50W. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A 1029 SFC HIGH SITUATED N OF THE AZORES. IN THE TROPICS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING WWD TO ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 9N41W. THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W. $$ GR