000 AXNT20 KNHC 081046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE...WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 33W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A SPIKE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N66W. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF 70W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 87W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 7N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 10W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 16W-28W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 53W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. BRISK 15-20 KT SWLY WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W PRODUCING NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW E OF 90W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM W HONDURAS TO SOUTH MEXICO ALONG THE LINE 14N88W 19N98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W. FURTHER E THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS FROM 32N46W TO 30N47W 29N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF THE FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 42W-45W. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 46N17W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THIS HIGH TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL A WELL DEFINED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 67W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-67W. A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N25W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 40W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. $$ FORMOSA