000
AXNT20 KNHC 080524
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 13W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE...WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW 
ANIMATION SHOWS THE WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE 
SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N 
BETWEEN 30W-40W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 65W S OF 19N MOVING W 
15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A SPIKE OF 
MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E 
OF 70W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 86W S OF 17N MOVING W 
10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND REMAINS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MASKING ANY 
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 7N30W 6N50W 6N54W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-4N 
BETWEEN 8W-11W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N 
BETWEEN 16W-28W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 50W-56W.       

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N76W. A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. BRISK 15-20 KT SWLY 
WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 23N. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 
90W PRODUCING NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW E 
OF 90W.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL 
PATTERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. 
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-84W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM W HONDURAS TO SOUTH MEXICO ALONG THE LINE 
14N88W 19N98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES 
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA. 

ATLANTIC...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N76W. 
FURTHER E THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS FROM 32N53W TO 30N65W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF 
THE FRONT N OF 30N BETWEEN 43W-47W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N20W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SW FROM THIS HIGH TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N35W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL A WELL DEFINED LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 67W.  A 
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-67W. A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N25W. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 40W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION.  

$$
FORMOSA