000 AXNT20 KNHC 080000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 11W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PEAK MOISTURE CURVATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N25W TO 9N38W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION INDICATES THE PEAK MOISTURE CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N9W 2N27W 6N39W 6N54W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 26W AND FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NNW TO OVER S TEXAS COVERING THE W GULF W OF 92W WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SW GULF GIVING THE AREA ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE/STRONG SE SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W CUBA HAVE MOVED INTO THE SE GULF S OF 27N FROM 81W-85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE THE AREA CLEAR SKIES. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PUERTO RICO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER E CUBA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA... JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA AND ARE MOVING OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH THE UPPER FLOW. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE THE LESSER ANTILLES WHILE THE S CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND PROVIDING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N87W 16N83W TO 15N67W AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG E TRADES ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC... LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W AND COVERS A BROAD AREA W OF 65W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N70W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER E CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DIGGING S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N57W TO 31N68W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS BRINGING DENSE CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA N OF 26N FROM 44W-55W. THE E ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N30W TO 24N42W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM OFF AFRICA S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 50W AND IS PROVIDING DRY/STABLE AIR OVER THE E ATLC. $$ WALLACE