000
AXNT20 KNHC 071048
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 31W-34W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE 
WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 61W-64W.    

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 83W S OF 17N MOVING W 
NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED 
MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND BENEATH AN UPPER 
TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 81W-85W.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N15W 7N30W 5N47W 4N51W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG 
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 2W-5W...AND FROM 2N-12N 
BETWEEN 8W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
4N-8N BETWEEN 35W-43W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 43W-48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 48W-53W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W. A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 15-20 KT SWLY WINDS 
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 23N. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW 
GULF NEAR 24N95W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 90W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE 
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.       

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO SOUTH MEXICO ALONG THE 
LINE 10N83W 19N93W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N70W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
18N-21N BETWEEN 68W-73W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE 
TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.    

ATLANTIC...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W. A 
LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W.  A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THIS HIGH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 24N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 
65W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-65W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N25W. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 40W.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO 
DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W IN 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION.    

$$
FORMOSA