000 AXNT20 KNHC 062335 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED TO THE NE FROM 3N27W TO 12N25W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ILL-DEFINED AND WAS RELOCATED BASED ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION ALONG THE PEAK MOISTURE CURVATURE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 54W-60W INCLUDING BARBADOS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT TRINIDAD/TOBAGO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 5N14W 4N19W 6N25W 4N32W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 5N31W 5N44W TO 10N54W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 11W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IN THE GULF IS SEA BREEZE INDUCED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING WITHIN 60/75 NM OFF THE COAST FROM FORT MYERS TO TAMPA AND OVER W CUBA MOVING WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE COAST INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 92W. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIVEN BY MODERATE/STRONG E AND SE SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE GULF BUT CONSIST OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N95W TO TEXAS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI...AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE E GULF ANCHORED INLAND OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CARIBBEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND IS RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN CUBA AND HAITI MAINTAINING THE TROUGH TO 13N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA TO W CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S VENEZUELA COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE ATLC IS MAINTAINING STRONG E TRADES ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER VENEZUELA IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N70W TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA ARE MOVING WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST LINES BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 25N70W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA IS TO THE E AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N66W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N74W TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND A WEAKER 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N74W. NEAR ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W AND N OF 20N. AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM OFF AFRICA ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 50W AND IS PROVIDING DRY/STABLE AIR OVER THE NE ATLC. $$ WALLACE