000 AXNT20 KNHC 061741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED SW-NE ALONG 29W TO 26W S OF 12W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AND POSITION IS PRIMARILY BASED ON CONTINUITY. MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION INDICATES PEAK MOISTURE ALONG 27W WITH WEAK CURVATURE ALONG 27W/28W. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE AXIS TO 21W FROM 8N-11N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W...OR ABOUT 240 NM E OF TOBAGO...S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 54-59W. THIS CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE OR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...THUS...THE POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N20W 5N30W 2N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 19W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO COVER THE GULF REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO WEAKEN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. AN UPPER LOW HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DIVERGENCE AROUND THE LOW COUPLED WITH ONSHORE SFC WINDS HAVE GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE TEXAS BORDER TO VERACRUZ. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND INTO THE SW GULF WEST OF 95W. CARIBBEAN... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 14N IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER VENEZUELA IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N71W TO PUERTO RICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING ANY CONVECTION N OF 17N TO WIDELY ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 56W TO IMPACT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ATLANTIC... THE W ATLC REMAINS TRANQUIL DUE TO A 1023 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 30N74W. FARTHER EAST... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 26N67W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 26N BETWEEN 64W-72W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 25N64W 22N67W TO 20N71W. A BROAD SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1030 MB SFC HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ATLC EAST OF 57W AND N OF 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING DRY/STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. IN THE TROPICS...DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER VENEZUELA AND THE TYPICAL E/W ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS CREATING A LINE OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG 10N53W 6N47W TO 3N41W WHERE IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. $$ WADDINGTON