000 AXNT20 KNHC 061053 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 14W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS WAVE AMPLITUDE N TO JUST SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING E TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. HOWEVER... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AND ANY CONVECTION IS MOSTLY LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 20N IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50-57W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 77W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE OR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N24W 5N28W 5N37W 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM S OF THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 22W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N41W TO 11N53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N GULF NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI COVERS THE GULF N OF 26N WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY CONFINED INLAND OVER S MEXICO/GUATEMALA AND AN AREA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 91W-96W DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 92W-95W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO SW LOUISIANA. COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL US...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE GULF W OF 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WITH ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESIDE N OF 24N. CARIBBEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NESTLED BETWEEN CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA DEEPENING THE TROUGH TO THE NRN COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NE VENEZUELA COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N TO ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT SOME SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG COASTAL NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N67W CONTINUING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 26N65W TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-73W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E VENEZUELA THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 30N46W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 58W-63W. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 32N25W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY ADVERSE WEATHER. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND N OF THE REGION CENTERED NEAR 36N33W. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS E OF 50W. $$ HUFFMAN