000 AXNT20 KNHC 060550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 15W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS WAVE AMPLITUDE N TO NEARLY THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING E TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 20N IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS ENTIRELY ABSENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE OR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N7W 4N15W 7N21W 6N26W 4N30W 6N39W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-14N AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 3N9W TO 3N18W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 21W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N30W TO 6N41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N GULF NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI COVERS THE GULF N OF 25N WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY CONFINED INLAND OVER S MEXICO/GUATEMALA AND AN AREA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 91W-94W DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO SW LOUISIANA. COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 15-20 KT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE GULF W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WITH ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESIDE N OF 23N. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NESTLED BETWEEN CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA DEEPENING THE TROUGH TO THE NRN COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NE VENEZUELA COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N TO ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA INHIBITING ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG COASTAL NICARAGUA...PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N67W CONTINUING ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 26N66W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N22N BETWEEN 67W-74W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E VENEZUELA THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N46W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 60W-63W. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 31N26W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY ADVERSE WEATHER. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND N OF THE REGION CENTERED NEAR 37N31W. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS E OF 50W. $$ HUFFMAN