000 AXNT20 KNHC 052333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 15W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING E TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS NO SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 20N IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A SMALL LOW LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 46W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE OR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N16W 9N21W 2N35W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-10N AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N31W TO 6N38W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 2W-17W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N GULF NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA COVERS THE GULF N OF 26N WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER S MEXICO...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE LONG LASTING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO SE LOUISIANA AND COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER ALL BUT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE ALL BUT THAT AREA. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA AND RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NESTLED BETWEEN CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA DEEPENING THE TROUGH TO THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S VENEZUELA COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N TO ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA PREVENTING THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH TOO FAR INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTENING DATA ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N57W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N66W CONTINUING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 25N65W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING OFF SHORE TO 21N BETWEEN 68W-73W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S VENEZUELA THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N46W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 60W-66W. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N27W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY ADVERSE WEATHER. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND N OF THE REGION. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS E OF 50W. $$ WALLACE