000 AXNT20 KNHC 051048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 18N IS MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 43W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE BEING MASKED BY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SO WAVE HAS BEEN LARGELY EXTRAPOLATED WESTWARD. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND ACROSS SW VENEZUELA AND SIMILAR CONVECTION ACROSS W VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. THE MIMIC-TPW CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN...THEREFORE THE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 5N23W 3N35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N34W TO 9N39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND S TEXAS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 22N94W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE S GULF INTO THE W CARIBBEAN PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE GULF N OF 22N REMAINS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT AREA. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS COASTLINES. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND W HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF JAMAICA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 76W-78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA TO NEAR 19N75W. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS IS GENERATING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 65W-75W AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING E OF BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM 25N71W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N57W TO BEYOND 32N52W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W-74W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO AIDING IN SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY AND EXTENDS FROM 27N61W 22N64W. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N30W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND HAS NO SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N33W. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 14N. $$ HUFFMAN