000 AXNT20 KNHC 050553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 18N IS MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W/69W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS THE WAVE TO BE BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND ACROSS SW VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W/85W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE MIMIC-TPW CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN...THEREFORE THE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N27W 2N40W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 20W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 7W-12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND S TEXAS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N89W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE S GULF INTO THE W CARIBBEAN PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER S MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE GULF N OF 23N REMAINS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT AREA. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOMINATE COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA TO JAMAICA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY E OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E TIP OF CUBA TO NEAR 19N75W. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 64W-74W AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING E OF BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM 24N71W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E TIP OF CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N59W TO BEYOND 32N53W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W-74W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N59W 21N62W. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N30W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND HAS NO SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR 38N34W. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS WITH AXIS ALONG 14N. $$ HUFFMAN