000 AXNT20 KNHC 042353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 20N IS MOVING W 5 KT. WAVE PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A SMALL LOW/MID LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 40W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS THE WAVE TO BE BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY UPPER AIR...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W/83W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. THE MIMIC-TPW CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CLUSTERS...THUS MASKING THE WAVE AXIS. THEREFORE THE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 3N21W 5N42W 5N53W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 7N21W TO 10N19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 16W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND S TEXAS TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N90W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE S GULF INTO THE W CARIBBEAN PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER S MEXICO... THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND W CUBA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. THE 1006 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ARTHUR...REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ BUT IS LOSING MOST OF ITS IDENTITY AND WILL BE DROPPED ON THE 05/0000 UTC MAP. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO JUST ACROSS FLORIDA AND COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE GULF N OF 23N IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT AREA. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOMINATE COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS PUSHING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER JAMAICA E FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 74W-77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E TIP OF CUBA TO NEAR 18N75W. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED SW TO BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM 24N71W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E TIP OF CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W TO BEYOND 32N53W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W-71W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N59W 21N62W AND SHOWS UP WELL ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS BUT IS FAIRLY HIDDEN BY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N29W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND HAS NO SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS TO JUST OVER FLORIDA AND ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND N OF THE REGION. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS. $$ WALLACE