000 AXNT20 KNHC 041052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ALONG 38W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. THIS WAVE IS VERY LARGE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 33W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 9N-12N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 33W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 63W/64W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DISTINGUISHED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED BUT THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THIS WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 62W-65W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS CHALLENGING TO TRACK AS THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE. ITS CURRENT POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION AND SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING S OF 14N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66W-85W. THIS CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS...E CUBA AND JAMAICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 2N29W 4N36W 5N41W 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 9W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM FROM A LINE 5N23W TO 7N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS N OF 23N. ALOFT STRONG TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND N GULF ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 21N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. ALOFT ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 22N. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE W GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR S MEXICO PULLS N AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. CARIBBEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 86W-91W DUE LARGELY IN PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 79W-84W. IN GENERAL...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 74W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA. MORE RELAXED TROUGHING THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-77W WHICH INCLUDES JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE UNDER THIS UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREATER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TO E CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 25N70W TO 19N73W ACROSS E HISPANIOLA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N BETWEEN 64W-74W OVER THE SE BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS E OF 55W LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD N OF 17N. A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 37N37W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ON ITS S PERIPHERY. $$ HUFFMAN