000 AXNT20 KNHC 040550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ALONG 36W/37W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. THIS WAVE IS VERY LARGE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 31W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10N-12N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 24 HOUR PRESSURE DIFFERENCES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE 1 MB LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 61W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS CHALLENGING TO TRACK AS THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE. ITS CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION AND SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING S OF 14N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 65W-78W. THIS CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 3N26W 7N34W 7N39W 3N44W 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS N OF 23N. ALOFT STRONG TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N. A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 21N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. ALOFT ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 22N. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE W GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR S MEXICO PULLS N AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. CARIBBEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE ABOVE. A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO... GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 88W-95W DUE LARGELY IN PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 86W-89W. IN GENERAL... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA. THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-77W WHICH INCLUDES JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC W OF 45W WITH THE MAIN AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AND A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 27N74W OVER THE W ATLC. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-67W. IN ADDITION TO THE OVERALL TROUGHING IS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 32N53W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AIDING IN SUSTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N BETWEEN 64W-75W. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS E OF 45W LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD N OF 17N. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 36N38W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ON ITS S PERIPHERY. $$ HUFFMAN