000 AXNT20 KNHC 032320 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ALONG 36W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. THIS WAVE IS VERY LARGE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 30W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30NM RADIUS OF 10N36W. MORE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL EXHIBITS A WEAK INVERTED V-SHAPE IN ITS LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. 24 HOUR PRESSURE DIFFERENCES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE 1 MB LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR BARBADOS FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 59W-61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER NE VENEZUELA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 61W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS CHALLENGING TO TRACK. ITS CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING S OF 14N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 69W-78W. THIS CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N40W 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 1W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 12W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 33W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER FLORIDA FROM 25N-31N. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 22N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO RIDGING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER S TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 22N. STRONG UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 22N. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE ABOVE. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA ...AND EL SALVADOR FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 88W-95W. ELSEWHERE... SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER ERN HONDURAS...ERN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NRN COLUMBIA AND N WRN VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 71W-75W. IN GENERAL...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS/MUDSLIDES MAY CONTINUE OVER S MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ATLANTIC... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG 31N68W 29N73W 31N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30NM OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N66W 27N72W. A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N37W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 20N AND W OF 50W. TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE NEAR 28N71W AND 32N54W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N28W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 25W. $$ WALTON/FORMOSA