000 AXNT20 KNHC 031750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ALONG 17N32W 2N35W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. THIS WAVE IS VERY LARGE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING AN AREA OF OVER 12 DEG OF LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 59W/60W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS ORGANIZED AS IT WAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IT STILL EXHIBITS A WEAK INVERTED V-SHAPE IN ITS LOW CLOUD FIELD. 24-H PRES DIFFERENCES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE UP TO 1 MB LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME CHALLENGING TO TRACK. ITS CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG ITS S EDGE OVER COLOMBIA...AND SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN CLOUD DRIFT WINDS AND IN EARLIER SHIP OBS. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IS SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 73W-78W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N20W 4N31W 3N40W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF 3N E OF 9W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING CENTERED OVER S MEXICO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND STRONG E WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF LIES ON THE W PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL ATLC SFC RIDGING WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE E GULF AND MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW ELSEWHERE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A SLOW MOVING LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 25N106W WHILE UPPER TROUGHING LIES OVER THE W ATLC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING N/NE FLOW WHICH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WATERS N OF 22N...LEADING TO MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER THE W GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR S MEXICO PULLS N AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. CARIBBEAN... A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS LIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. PART OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE NEAR S MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER COMPONENT IS AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE SW WATERS...NEAR THE ITCZ...S OF 11N W OF 76W. IN THE E CARIB...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS JUST PUSHED INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC... MID TO UPPER TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH THE MAIN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N70W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING FROM BERMUDA TO S GEORGIA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LIES ABOUT 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ADDING TO THE OVERALL TROUGHING IS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 32N53W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-77W AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 51W-54W. FARTHER E...THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 13N50W AND BROAD UPPER TROUGHING LIES TO ITS NE. AN UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER AFRICA EXTENDING W ALONG 16N TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 37N38W DOMINATES THE PATTERN PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ON ITS S PERIPHERY. $$ CANGIALOSI