000 AXNT20 KNHC 030551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 32W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEAL A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. DESPITE THE GOOD ORGANIZATION OF STRUCTURE...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 10N-12N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE INVERTED-V CLOUD SHAPE WITH ASSOCIATED PATCHES OF DEEP CLOUDINESS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 12N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 72W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND TOGETHER AIDING IN PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND ACROSS E COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N18W 4N31W 3N35W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 19W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N90W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE GULF AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER RESIDES ACROSS W CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. THIS DRY AIR IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS S MEXICO...REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE S GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20-25 KT. WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS FROM W CUBA WSW ACROSS THE S GULF...YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-96W IN THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN... A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS NW OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND ACROSS W HONDURAS AND S BELIZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W COLOMBIA COASTLINE IN RESPONSE TO THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NEARBY REGION. IN GENERAL...MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A LARGE QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N39W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA IN THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 75W-79W. MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN SEA IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CUBA...THE S BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 52W-56W. ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 61W-67W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE. IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N50W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR 32N40W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N33W AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM AFRICA ALONG 11N E OF 25W. ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE W AFRICAN COAST AND 30W. $$ HUFFMAN