000 AXNT20 KNHC 022322 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 30W/31W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WELL DEFINED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 8N. DESPITE THE GOOD ORGANIZATION OF STRUCTURE...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD SHAPE WITH ASSOCIATED PATCHES OF DEEP CLOUDINESS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 70W/71W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER S AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 67W-76W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N25W EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 29W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING COVERS THE SRN GULF DUE TO THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER WRN CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO RIDGING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT REMNANTS OF ARTHUR TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN... A 1007 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR...IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 18N92W. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 89W-92W. FURTHER SOUTH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER SRN GUATEMALA... HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. OVER SOUTH AMERICA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NRN COLUMBIA AND N WRN VENEZUELA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 67W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER INLAND CUBA W OF 80W...AND OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N. IN GENERAL...MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS/MUDSLIDES MAY CONTINUE OVER S MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ATLANTIC... A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N39W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-31N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 25N AND W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N57W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 62W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA