000 AXNT20 KNHC 021718 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 29W/30W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WELL DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 8N. A ASCAT PASS EARLIER TODAY DEPICTED THE PRESENCE OF THIS TURNING AT THE SFC. DESPITE THE ORGANIZATION IN STRUCTURE...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS THE MORE CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD SHAPE WITH THE ASSOCIATED PATCHES OF DEEP CLOUDINESS...AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...GROUPED WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO ELY SHEAR. TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 67W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WHILE LITTLE SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE S CARIB...A WESTWARD MOVING BURST OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N20W 4N34W 2N40W 0N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 13W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-40W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SLOW MOVING REMNANTS OF ARTHUR IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NE/E 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE SPREAD FARTHER N OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS S OF 24N E OF 90W...MARKING THE N PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE GYRE THAT THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR IS EMBEDDED IN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD DRY AIR IN AN UPPER CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER MEXICO AND UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. E COAST AND THE E GULF WATERS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N85W EMBEDDED IN A LARGE RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS. THIS PATTERN IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE N WATERS AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN... THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE GYRE THAT CONTAINS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CUBA TO SEVERAL HUNDRED NM S OF MEXICO. WHILE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE IN THE EPAC...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO AFFECT S MEXICO ...MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 78W. THESE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS/MUDSLIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 13N W OF 77W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC... A 1030 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE SFC PATTERN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N40W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ON ITS S PERIPHERY. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BROAD TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 54W-57W AND IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE S OF 23N BETWEEN 62W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 11N48W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR 32N44W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 21N32W AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM AFRICA ALONG 11N E OF 25W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER...IN FACT IT IS ENHANCING FAIR WEATHER IN THE CONFLUENT AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 29W-42W. $$ CANGIALOSI