000 AXNT20 KNHC 021134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ALONG THE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 8N. DESPITE THE ORGANIZATION IN STRUCTURE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE HAS MAINTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF AMPLITUDE ACCORDING TO THE TPW-ANIMATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 53W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA WITH ONLY A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON THE TPW-ANIMATION. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS SPARSE ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N16W 6N27W 4N31W 1N41W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 3W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N21W TO 1S23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...REMNANT OF T.D. ARTHUR...LOCATED ACROSS S MEXICO IS PRODUCING NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF AND S BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND AN EMBEDDED 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W ARE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN INLAND HOWEVER OVER W AND CENTRAL CUBA INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 79W-83W IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SE GULF. LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION RESIDES OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO PROVIDING NLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED STABLE AND DRY AIR IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY. EXPECT REMNANT LOW ACROSS S MEXICO TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS TERRAIN EFFECTS AND WEAKENS FURTHER ACROSS S MEXICO. CARIBBEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W AND A VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE BELIZE COAST AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 86W-89W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS/MUDSLIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLOMBIAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 71W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS E HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC... A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N40W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN N OF 15N AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N59W. WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF E HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 63W-69W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N49W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR 32N42W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 21N32W. $$ HUFFMAN