000 AXNT20 KNHC 020551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17.4N 91.3W OR NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO AT 02/0300 UTC MOVING SW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. PRESENTLY BELIZE...NRN GUATEMALA...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 86W-94W. ARTHUR AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. AS ALWAYS IN THESE CASES...THE RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ALONG THE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 9N. DESPITE THE ORGANIZATION IN STRUCTURE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE HAS MAINTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF AMPLITUDE ACCORDING TO THE TPW-ANIMATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 51W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS INLAND ACROSS E VENEZUELA WITH ONLY A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON THE TPW-ANIMATION. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS SE VENEZUELA AND IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N18W 6N27W 4N30W 2N40W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM MOSTLY INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 3W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N20W TO 2S23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 25W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 39W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR AND ITS REMNANTS ARE PRODUCING NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF AND S BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND AN EMBEDDED 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W IS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER OVER CUBA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 79W-85W IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SE GULF. LARGE ANTICYCLONE RESIDES OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO PROVIDING NLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED STABLE AND DRY AIR IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY. EXPECT REMNANT LOW FROM ARTHUR TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARTHUR WEAKENS INLAND ACROSS S MEXICO. CARIBBEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 82W AND A VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE BELIZE COAST AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS/MUDSLIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 76W-79W IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLOMBIAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 71W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W WHICH IS HELPING TO AID IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS E HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. ATLANTIC... A LARGE QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N40W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN N OF 15N AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N59W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N47W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 32N45W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 23N30W. $$ HUFFMAN