000 AXNT20 KNHC 020007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17.7N 91.1W OR NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO AT 01/2100 UTC MOVING WSW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. PRESENTLY BELIZE...NRN GUATEMALA...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 86W-93W. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. AS ALWAYS IN THESE CASES...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ALONG THE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 10N. DESPITE THE ORGANIZATION IN STRUCTURE... CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 49W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER E VENEZUELA ALONG 62W/63W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. WHILE MOST OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...THERE COULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AS NOTED IN SFC OBS. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 3N30W 2N40W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 8W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN 23W-28W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 41W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 49W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND AN EMBEDDED 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W IS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING COVERS THE SRN GULF DUE TO THE NRN PERIPHERY OF T.D. ARTHUR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO RIDGING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT ARTHUR TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARTHUR WEAKEN INLAND. CARIBBEAN... ARTHUR IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER S OVER CENTRAL AMERICA OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 74W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 76W-82W...AND OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W OF 70W DUE TO ARTHUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N40W DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N42W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER W AFRICA. $$ FORMOSA