000 AXNT20 KNHC 011752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC...EXCEPT FOR METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY WHICH HAS NOT BEEN UPDATED SINCE 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ARTHUR HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AS IT CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF LAND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18.1N 90.7W ABOUT 110 NM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AT 01/1500 UTC MOVING WSW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF DENSE CLOUDINESS OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NEARBY WATERS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS (LIKELY THE HEAVIEST RAINS) AT THE MOMENT ARE OVER BELIZE...THE E PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER TOPPED CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. AS ALWAYS IN THESE CASES...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ALONG THE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 10N. DESPITE THE ORGANIZATION IN STRUCTURE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY SCATTERED MODERATE IN NATURE...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY STAGGERED WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 11N BY E/SE SHEAR. CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS ENHANCED ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER E VENEZUELA ALONG 62W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. WHILE MOST OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...THERE COULD BE SOME INFLUENCE OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AS NOTED IN SFC OBS. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N27W 3N42W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-46W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR IS PRODUCING NE TO E 20-30 KT WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF WATERS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET DUE TO DRY NLY UPPER FLOW ON THE E PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER N MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED STABLE AIR IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS PROVIDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE AXIS AND MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH TOMORROW. CARIBBEAN... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IN ADDITION TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR...WHICH IS THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THIS RAINFALL...A TROPICAL WAVE ALSO BECAME EMBEDDED IN THIS REGION ENHANCING/EXPANDING THE SHIELD OF MOISTURE. THESE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS/MUDSLIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW WATERS S OF 11N ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES N OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-76W. THIS ACTIVITY IS TRIGGERED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL...THROUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE MOIST UPPER ENVIRONMENT AND TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL TRADES. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 30N60W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S ROUGHLY TO 23N60W THEN CURVING SW ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE AXIS IS MOISTENING THE AIR...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS APPEAR CONFINED TO AN AREA SE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 56W-58W. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REGION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS DUE TO A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC PATTERN IS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED CONSISTING OF A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 12N43W...AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N25W AND UPPER RIDGING ALONG 14N E OF 23W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION (BESIDES FOR WITHIN THE ITCZ). AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N40W DOMINATES THE SFC PATTERN PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS. $$ CANGIALOSI