000 AXNT20 KNHC 011138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18.2N 90.3W ABOUT 100 NM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AT 01/1200 UTC MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS INLAND THE HEAVIEST WEATHER IS S OF THE CENTER FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO OVER S MEXICO. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND W OF 84W ACROSS BELIZE... GUATEMALA...AND S MEXICO TO 96W INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N. OUTER BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE E TIP OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE... GUATEMALA...AND SE MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MIMIC-TPW AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH A MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 18W-22W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS WITH A BROAD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NUMEROUS SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY. THE WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 57W-61W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN THAT WAS ALONG 84W HAS BEEN DROPPED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N16W 6N23W 3N31W 4N47W 3N52W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 41W-45W WITH SMALL SCATTERED CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 11W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY N UPPER FLOW MAINLY N OF 23N. A SMALL MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W WHILE THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 24N E OF 89W AND N OF 20N W OF 89W WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FAR SE GULF EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF/SE US WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N87W AND COMBINED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE S GULF AND CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N E OF 88W THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN... MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. SEE SPECIAL FEATHERS ABOVE. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM COVERS THE AREA W OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC DIPS S TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS. MODERATE/ STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ITCZ AXIS AGAIN CROSSES THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC... WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W TO FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N FROM 56W-70W AND A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SW TO OVER HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE AREA FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 56W-60W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 11N43W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN FEATURES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC INTO THE SE US AND N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N39W. $$ WALLACE