000 AXNT20 KNHC 010557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18.4N 89.8W ABOUT 96 NM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AT 01/0600 UTC MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS INLAND THE HEAVIEST WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OVER S MEXICO. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 19N INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND W OF 85W TO THE COAST OF BELIZE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-95W. OUTER BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA AND IN THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 24N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 83W-87W. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MIMIC-TPW AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH A MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE TRAILING THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM 1N15W TO 9N19W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS WITH A BROAD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 42W-53W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY. THE WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF 6N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 55W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 84W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. THIS WAVE IS BEING ABSORBED AND INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR AND WILL PROBABLY BE DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS AT 01/0600 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 4N27W 1N37W 2N45W 1N51W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY N UPPER FLOW MAINLY N OF 22N. A SMALL MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W WHILE THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF MAINLY N OF 23N WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FAR S GULF EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF/SE US AND COMBINED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE S GULF AND CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE WINDS CREATED A FAIRLY STRONG SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED OFF SHORE AND ARE NOW FROM 25N-27N E OF 84W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN... MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. SEE SPECIAL FEATHERS ABOVE. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM COVERS THE AREA W OF 74W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC DIPS S TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF PUERTO RICO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ATLANTIC... WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 74W TO FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 58W-74W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N59W TO 28N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 24N60W TO 28N57W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 11N42W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN FEATURES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC INTO THE SE US AND N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE AND ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 34N38W. $$ WALLACE