000 AXNT20 KNHC 311054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. MIMIC-TPW CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS AND A MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 8N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 5N16W TO 4N20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LIEN FROM 9N17W TO 7N22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-16W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS WITH A BROAD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF 9N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 51W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MASKING ANY SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 4N12W 6N16W 2N28W 5N40W 3N52W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 23W-27W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 43W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COVERING THE GULF N OF 24N. WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 84W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED OVER THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ALMA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS CREATING A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 24N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N GULF WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE S GULF FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE S OF A LINE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 19N94W ALONG 24N88W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER CUBA. THE N GULF CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF/SE US AND COMBINED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE S GULF AND CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CARIBBEAN... BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ALMA IS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 17N88W. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS MORNING. EVEN IF IT DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR... GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND SE MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA AND MAINTAINING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MAINLY W OF 82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 82W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND N OF 18N FROM 78W-82W TO OVER CUBA AND INCLUDES THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N FROM 69W-78W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/ STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ATLANTIC... WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM 59W-77W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N59W TO 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH W OF 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH OVER THE SE US INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE ATLC FROM THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W ALONG 26N25W TO 24N35W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N19W 27N27W TO 27N32W. THE AREA IS UNDER RATHER DRY CONDITIONS SO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N37W EXTENDING N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DOMINATING THE TROPICS W OF 30W. A SECOND UPPER HIGH IS DEVELOPING NEAR 7N18W EXPANDING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 17W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W GIVING THE REGION E OF 55W FAIR WEATHER. $$ WALLACE