000 AXNT20 KNHC 310501 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 18W S OF 16N. THIS WAVE AXIS BASED ON MIMIC-TPW APPEARS TO BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE RATHER THAN THE TRUE WAVE AXIS AND MAY NEED TO BE RELOCATED LATER. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 17W-21W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 15N WITH A WEAK SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST TO THE W ALONG 41W S OF 10N. ANY CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AND FURTHER SOUTH. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW. THE WAVE IS AT A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND SO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS INDISCERNIBLE. ANY CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N19W 1N30W 4N41W 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-23W...FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-45W...AND S OF 8N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 52W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COVERING THE GULF N OF 25N. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 84W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED OVER THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ALMA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS CREATING A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 25N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N GULF WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS FROM THE S FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE S OF ALINE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 19N94W ALONG 24N86W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER CUBA. THE N GULF CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE N GULF/SE US AND COMBINED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE S GULF AND CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CARIBBEAN... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ALMA IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 17N87W MOVING NW AND WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA W OF 67W AND MAINTAINING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MAINLY W OF 80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 82W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 82W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 60W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N61W TO 26N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH OVER THE SE US INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N37W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N39W EXTENDING N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DOMINATING THE TROPICS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W GIVING THE REGION E OF 55W FAIR WEATHER. $$ WALLACE