000 AXNT20 KNHC 310013 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 17N. CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 8N AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE TO BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE. THERE IS SLIGHT CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS AGAIN W OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AXIS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE TIME BEING. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N20W 1N30W 4N43W 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 19W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 39W-47W...AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 50W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ELY TO SELY 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. A 1008 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF ALMA...IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W AND IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND CUBA W OF 81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER TEXAS. A COL IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES N OF 23N WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER MOISTURE IS S OF 23N. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. A BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALMA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM HAITI TO E CUBA MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHILE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 13N. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N70W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N60W 25N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE TURKS ANS CAICOS ISLANDS FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N64W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 9N37W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 17N16W. $$ FORMOSA