000 AXNT20 KNHC 301757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 17N. ANY CONVECTION IS S OF 8N AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW AND SLIGHT CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE EXHIBITS LOW AMPLITUDE AND REMAINS MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W/77W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE AXIS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 22N MOVING NW AT 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE PARALLELS THE E BELIZE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER W HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N20W 3N25W 4N33W 4N38W 3N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 1N11W TO 6N22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 41W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR LOS MOCHIS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS E TEXAS TO LOUISIANA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF SW TO 25N91W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE S GULF S OF 24N. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES N OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINS FROM THE S GULF TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE YUCATAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER W CUBA. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC N OF THE AREA COVERS THE N GULF/SE US AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN... BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC. THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NW PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 81W-88W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 15N FROM PUERTO RICO WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 60W INTO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N76W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING ONSHORE OVER S FLORIDA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N66W TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND IS AIDING IN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N43W NE TO BEYOND 33N41W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N16W ALONG 27N26W TO 26N32W. AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC AND INTO THE E US/N GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE AREA E OF BERMUDA WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N39W. $$ HUFFMAN