000 AXNT20 KNHC 291157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE AHEAD OF A SURGE COMING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N 26W-32. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH ANY CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS THAT COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 83W/84W BETWEEN 13N-20N MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BEING FORCED NW BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E OFF THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 5N18W 2N23W 5N30W 4N52W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE THE EQUATOR 3N-8N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 23W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W-26W AND BETWEEN 31W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MEXICO INTO THE GULF W OF 93W ANCHORED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO. A NARROW INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR NW OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 82W-87W AND S OF 22N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 91W-96W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM THE W ATLC TO E TEXAS WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS MORNING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES AS WELL AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE E PACIFIC OFF THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IN THE E PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-17N W OF 74W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE AREA S OF THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA NW THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 67W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N59W TO 25N63W THEN A EXTENDING A SHEAR AXIS S OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N62W ALONG 27N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS S TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 72W-80W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROADER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N51W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N59W ALONG 27N63W TO 23N67W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 62W AND THE TROUGH AXIS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 31N29W SW ALONG 24N35W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 8N55W. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 20N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N42W. A WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N70W. THE RESULT IS CALM WEATHER FOR THE ATLC E OF 55W. $$ WALLACE