000 AXNT20 KNHC 290520 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 23W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG 40W/41W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH ANY CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS THAT COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N FROM OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 82W/83W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA AND A NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT IS OFF THE WEST COAST OF COSTA RICA...INDICATING THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N15W 7N24W 3N35W 2N51W AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N73W TO 13N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N15W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 7N13W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 8W AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 10W-21W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 28W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N W OF 34W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO ANCHORED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO. A NARROW INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR N OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 81W-86W AND S OF 22N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 90W-95W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM THE W ATLC TO E TEXAS WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE TONIGHT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES AS WELL AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE E PACIFIC OFF THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 70W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS N OF 20N W OF 80W ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N64W THEN A EXTENDING A SHEAR AXIS S OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N63W ALONG 27N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS S TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-78W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROADER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NNE TO BEYOND 32N52W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N59W ALONG 27N61W TO 24N66W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 27N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 60W AND THE TROUGH AXIS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 31N29W SW ALONG 23N36W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 13N52W. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 20N W OF 60W WITH A WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE BRIDGING THE SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO ALL ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N44W. THE RESULT IS CALM WEATHER FOR THE ATLC E OF 55W. $$ WALLACE