000 AXNT20 KNHC 281740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GFS MODEL MOISTURE FIELD GUIDANCE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-8N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 38W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT BASED ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION FROM CIMSS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 9N64W TO 21N64W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY N OF 17N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 80W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE EPAC AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N15W 4N21W 3N26W 2N36W 2N39W EQ51W AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N76W TO NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 8N INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 26W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF W CENTRAL MEXICO. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N88W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING S TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W. THESE ARE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER PRODUCING FEATURES AS THE ENTIRE GULF IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM THE W ATLC TO E TEXAS WITH MODERATE 10-15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS IN THE SE GULF WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N E OF 83W TO THE FLORIDA COAST DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE SW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL EPAC MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W ARE PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W OF 72W OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...N COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND E HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC WITH A WELL DEFINED ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 33N64W TO 24N67W AND AN EXTENDING ASSOCIATED SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. THIS SUPPORTS A PAIR OF REMNANT SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N66W TO NEAR 28N71W AND ACROSS CROOKED ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON THE NORTHERN TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO 24N63W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROADER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N48W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 33N30W SW INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 15N49W. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N BRIDGING THE SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N38W. THE RESULT IS CALM WEATHER FOR THE ATLC E OF 55W. $$ HUFFMAN